📐 Our Methodology
How Ilystics predicts site trafficability
Overview
Ilystics turns NOAA station records into a day-by-day workable / unworkable determination for a specific jobsite, measured against a ten-year baseline for the same calendar window and the same location. The question it answers is the one a contract turns on: was this period abnormal, or just wet?
Rainfall totals alone understate the damage. Ground stays unworkable well past the last raindrop, and how long depends on the soil — so a month of scattered showers on clay can cost more workdays than a wetter month that arrives in two storms. The model accounts for that drying time rather than counting rain days.
The full calculation — constants, thresholds, worked example and limitations — is documented and available for review by counsel or an opposing expert on request. Ask for a copy if you need to check the arithmetic behind an exhibit.
Core Principles
We track rainfall over the past 7 days, with heavier rain events having greater impact on soil saturation and drying time.
Different soils drain at different rates. Clay soils hold water longest, while sandy and gravelly soils drain quickly. We account for your site's specific soil characteristics.
Drying rates vary significantly by season. Winter conditions slow evaporation, while summer heat accelerates drying. We also account for frozen ground conditions.
Our system tracks antecedent moisture—meaning multiple rain events compound to increase drying time beyond what a single event would cause.
Data Sources
Every figure in an Ilystics document traces to a public, government-published source that anyone can pull independently. No proprietary feeds, no modelled grid estimates.
Daily precipitation and temperature from physical gauges at named stations. U.S. Government public domain. Every report states which station was used, how far it sits from the site, and what percentage of days it actually reported — so an opposing expert can pull the same record and check it row by row.
Official soil classification and hydrologic group for the specific parcel. Drainage behaviour is resolved from the survey rather than assumed from the region, because how long a site stays unworkable after rain depends far more on the soil than on the rainfall total.
ZIP-to-coordinate resolution for locating the nearest reporting station. Public domain and held locally, so a jobsite resolves to the same point every time rather than depending on a third-party lookup service.
Station observations, not reanalysis. A gridded weather model can tell you it probably rained. A named gauge 0.8 miles from the site recorded 0.83 inches — and that is a materially stronger statement to put in front of an owner, an engineer, or a judge.
Two Analysis Modes
One engine, two documents. They answer different questions at different points in a project, and they deliberately use different conventions — so a reviewer holding both knows why the counts differ slightly for the same site.
📈 Anticipated Weather Exhibit
Forward-looking. How many weather days should I carry? Uses a ten-year record for the same calendar month and location to give a typical month, a median, and the point at which a month stops being normal. For bidding and scheduling, before anything goes wrong.
Free · Run one now
📋 Weather Delay Claim Report
Backward-looking. Was this period abnormal? Measures the specific disputed dates against what was normal before them, day by day, and returns the answer either way. Sized to attach to a claim as the baseline exhibit.
$249 · Request one
The baselines are anchored differently on purpose. An exhibit written today should describe the climate you face today. A claim about a past period has to be judged against what was normal before it — otherwise later weather could retroactively change whether a past month counted as abnormal.
Risk Classification
© 2026 Ilystics. All Rights Reserved.
Our predictive algorithms and analytical methods are proprietary to Ilystics.